Category: Complex systems

The thermocline of innovation (NASA, again) »

I have written about the thermocline of truth, a phenomenon I have witnessed several times in large IT projects where the true status of the project (usually not good) gets blocked at a certain layer of management, slowly moving up the management chain and usually reaching the top just weeks before the scheduled release date.  [...]

The dangers of technological predictions »

Ray Kurzweil is a very well-known techno-futurist whose main focus has been the coming of artificial sentience.  His 1999 book, The Age of Spiritual Machines, contains a series of chapters prediction computer technology in successive decades (2009, 2019, etc.). Well, we’re now entering 2009, and it’s worth looking at his 2009 predictions (hat tip to [...]

Systems doomed to fail: ULTra mass transit »

Over at Futurismic (one of my daily science blog reads) is this post about the ULTra light transit system.  The system is quite clever and takes a demand-based (vs. a schedule-based) approach to transit. But as you watch the accompanying video, ask yourself: why will the ULTra system likely never grow beyond small, custom installations [...]

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