Comments on: The Wetware Crisis: the Thermocline of Truth http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/15/the-wetware-crisis-the-themocline-of-truth/ Making IT work since 1974. Sun, 25 Jul 2010 18:45:06 -0700 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0 By: The thermocline of innovation (NASA, again) : Bruce F. Webster http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/15/the-wetware-crisis-the-themocline-of-truth/comment-page-1/#comment-148 The thermocline of innovation (NASA, again) : Bruce F. Webster Fri, 30 Jan 2009 16:36:33 +0000 http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/15/the-wetware-crisis-the-themocline-of-truth/#comment-148 [...] have written about the thermocline of truth, a phenomenon I have witnessed several times in large IT projects where the true status of the [...] [...] have written about the thermocline of truth, a phenomenon I have witnessed several times in large IT projects where the true status of the [...]

]]> By: The thermocline of truth — at NASA : Bruce F. Webster http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/15/the-wetware-crisis-the-themocline-of-truth/comment-page-1/#comment-99 The thermocline of truth — at NASA : Bruce F. Webster Tue, 26 Aug 2008 12:05:28 +0000 http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/15/the-wetware-crisis-the-themocline-of-truth/#comment-99 [...] course, this is the “thermocline of truth” syndrome that I’ve discussed here before. Go read the whole e-mail, though, and be [...] [...] course, this is the “thermocline of truth” syndrome that I’ve discussed here before. Go read the whole e-mail, though, and be [...]

]]> By: cwrose http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/15/the-wetware-crisis-the-themocline-of-truth/comment-page-1/#comment-96 cwrose Fri, 20 Jun 2008 21:24:07 +0000 http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/15/the-wetware-crisis-the-themocline-of-truth/#comment-96 I've run across similar problems in managing large, complicated systems and one explanation I came up with can be explained by a crude mathematical model. Suppose we have a perfectly spherical elephant, whose mass may be neglected ... er, no suppose we have an organisation with four levels of management. The lowest level is the one dealing with the hardware, or the environment, and is therefore the level with the most accurate and complete knowledge of reality. Let's say (for ease of calculation) that things are coasting along, there's equal amounts of good news and bad news at the coalface. Now generally, people like to hear good news, and dislike to hear bad news; in extreme cases, a "shoot the messenger" policy can be in force. So it's only human nature that reports of good news get a bit exaggerated, and reports of bad news get trimmed back a touch. Not by much; to make the maths easier, say good news gets increased by 10 percent on each reporting, and bad news is reduced by the same amount. So after three levels of reporting, with equal amounts of good news and bad news coming into the organisation, the man at the top hears 1 x 1.1 x 1.1 x 1.1 units of good news, and 1 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 units of bad news; 1.33 to 0.73, or nearly twice as much good news as bad. "Hey", says the boss, "things are going really, really well." This, of course, assumes that information travels only through regular channels, and doesn't explain the thermocline effect, but does explain most of the actual examples I've seen in managing large systems. My (partial) cure was to be very pleased if anyone told me any bad news, another approach would be to develop accurate reporting systems that bypass multiple levels, but that would greatly upset the managers thus bypassed. The real answer is to hire competent managers, but that's not always an option. C W Rose I’ve run across similar problems in managing large, complicated
systems and one explanation I came up with can be explained by
a crude mathematical model.

Suppose we have a perfectly spherical elephant, whose mass may
be neglected … er, no suppose we have an organisation with
four levels of management. The lowest level is the one dealing
with the hardware, or the environment, and is therefore the level
with the most accurate and complete knowledge of reality. Let’s
say (for ease of calculation) that things are coasting along,
there’s equal amounts of good news and bad news at the coalface.

Now generally, people like to hear good news, and dislike to hear
bad news; in extreme cases, a “shoot the messenger” policy can be
in force. So it’s only human nature that reports of good news get
a bit exaggerated, and reports of bad news get trimmed back a touch.
Not by much; to make the maths easier, say good news gets increased
by 10 percent on each reporting, and bad news is reduced by the same
amount.

So after three levels of reporting, with equal amounts of good news
and bad news coming into the organisation, the man at the top hears
1 x 1.1 x 1.1 x 1.1 units of good news, and 1 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 units
of bad news; 1.33 to 0.73, or nearly twice as much good news as bad.
“Hey”, says the boss, “things are going really, really well.”

This, of course, assumes that information travels only through regular
channels, and doesn’t explain the thermocline effect, but does explain
most of the actual examples I’ve seen in managing large systems. My
(partial) cure was to be very pleased if anyone told me any bad news,
another approach would be to develop accurate reporting systems that
bypass multiple levels, but that would greatly upset the managers thus
bypassed. The real answer is to hire competent managers, but that’s
not always an option.

C W Rose

]]> By: The Human ESB at vedovini.net http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/15/the-wetware-crisis-the-themocline-of-truth/comment-page-1/#comment-95 The Human ESB at vedovini.net Fri, 20 Jun 2008 05:45:17 +0000 http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/15/the-wetware-crisis-the-themocline-of-truth/#comment-95 [...] HSB receives messages from humans, transforms them, aggregates them, sometime filters them, and forwards them to other humans or [...] [...] HSB receives messages from humans, transforms them, aggregates them, sometime filters them, and forwards them to other humans or [...]

]]> By: The Termocline of Truth | Corpus Scriptorum Crumbum http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/15/the-wetware-crisis-the-themocline-of-truth/comment-page-1/#comment-98 The Termocline of Truth | Corpus Scriptorum Crumbum Wed, 18 Jun 2008 03:00:59 +0000 http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/15/the-wetware-crisis-the-themocline-of-truth/#comment-98 [...] going to let someone else do the writing for this one. I like the metaphor a lot. It helps that it’s true, [...] [...] going to let someone else do the writing for this one. I like the metaphor a lot. It helps that it’s true, [...]

]]> By: Anatomy of a runaway IT project : Bruce F. Webster http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/15/the-wetware-crisis-the-themocline-of-truth/comment-page-1/#comment-97 Anatomy of a runaway IT project : Bruce F. Webster Mon, 16 Jun 2008 17:40:16 +0000 http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/15/the-wetware-crisis-the-themocline-of-truth/#comment-97 [...] up the management chain, but the issues appear to always get stopped, usually at Bob Winsom. [The "thermocline of truth", with a very discrete boundary.] The FUBAR project is represented as something that has never been [...] [...] up the management chain, but the issues appear to always get stopped, usually at Bob Winsom. [The "thermocline of truth", with a very discrete boundary.] The FUBAR project is represented as something that has never been [...]

]]> By: Gender differences in coding styles? : Bruce F. Webster http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/15/the-wetware-crisis-the-themocline-of-truth/comment-page-1/#comment-94 Gender differences in coding styles? : Bruce F. Webster Mon, 09 Jun 2008 17:10:56 +0000 http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/15/the-wetware-crisis-the-themocline-of-truth/#comment-94 [...] my earlier post on the “thermocline of truth“, I wrote: Second, IT engineers by nature tend to be optimists, as reflected in the common [...] [...] my earlier post on the “thermocline of truth“, I wrote: Second, IT engineers by nature tend to be optimists, as reflected in the common [...]

]]> By: Some thoughts on “Up or Out” : Bruce F. Webster http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/15/the-wetware-crisis-the-themocline-of-truth/comment-page-1/#comment-93 Some thoughts on “Up or Out” : Bruce F. Webster Tue, 29 Apr 2008 23:46:38 +0000 http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/15/the-wetware-crisis-the-themocline-of-truth/#comment-93 [...] millions of dollars in failed or late IT projects because they would constantly disrupt the ‘thermocline of truth‘ before it even [...] [...] millions of dollars in failed or late IT projects because they would constantly disrupt the ‘thermocline of truth‘ before it even [...]

]]> By: Pitfall: Asking the wrong questions : Webster & Associates LLC http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/15/the-wetware-crisis-the-themocline-of-truth/comment-page-1/#comment-92 Pitfall: Asking the wrong questions : Webster & Associates LLC Sun, 27 Apr 2008 23:44:26 +0000 http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/15/the-wetware-crisis-the-themocline-of-truth/#comment-92 [...] simplest, most direct method is to work your way up the management chain, asking each manager, “What are your questions and expectations with regards to the [...] [...] simplest, most direct method is to work your way up the management chain, asking each manager, “What are your questions and expectations with regards to the [...]

]]> By: bfwebster http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/15/the-wetware-crisis-the-themocline-of-truth/comment-page-1/#comment-91 bfwebster Thu, 17 Apr 2008 21:48:58 +0000 http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/15/the-wetware-crisis-the-themocline-of-truth/#comment-91 Jerry: I'm honored (honest!) that you'd take the time to come over here and expand on your critique; it'll all help with the final product. I think we're largely in violent agreement here, with the exception of whether thermoclines exist in organizations. <a href="http://brucefwebster.com/2008/06/16/anatomy-of-a-runaway-it-project/" rel="nofollow">I've seen them personally</a>, usually when I've been called in to review a troubled project (though also when I've worked on as an expert on IT systems failure lawsuits). In other words, I've been able to pinpoint the layer at which the 'flip' occurs. And, no, I don't think that "automated, objective, repeatable metrics" are easy, and I'm not entirely clear they exist. I look forward to your new books, as always! ..bruce.. Jerry:

I’m honored (honest!) that you’d take the time to come over here and expand on your critique; it’ll all help with the final product. I think we’re largely in violent agreement here, with the exception of whether thermoclines exist in organizations. I’ve seen them personally, usually when I’ve been called in to review a troubled project (though also when I’ve worked on as an expert on IT systems failure lawsuits). In other words, I’ve been able to pinpoint the layer at which the ‘flip’ occurs.

And, no, I don’t think that “automated, objective, repeatable metrics” are easy, and I’m not entirely clear they exist.

I look forward to your new books, as always! ..bruce..

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